Kristy you captured the frustration and stillness of the situation in Lebanon so clearly and beautifully. Thank you for putting it into words. Excellent work!
First, I just want to say I’m really glad I’ve come across your Substack. The Karometer is a refreshing take on Lebanese politics.
I agree with much of your logic, I’d just like to add a couple more reflections..
On the disarmament piece, I think the analysis could benefit from factoring in how counterproductive Israeli measures have been (inaction on withdrawal, their army is still occupying 5 outposts + their latest attack on Beirut). I think this adds logistical and psychological weight on disarmament efforts and complicates any short-term objective.
As for Lebanon’s absence from the US–Iran negotiation table, and I’m still debating this myself, I echo your point about the need for agency in decisions that directly affect us, but at the same time, I’m leaning toward the idea that this exclusion is the result of our own collective undoing, and maybe it’s time to acknowledge our current size and weight, and build from there. That’s obviously easier said than done given how deeply the Lebanese psyche cares about global affiliations.
Few comments concerning the financial part of your analysis. The central bank is not responsible for passing laws merely commenting on suggested ones and the main players are the government and the parliament. The regulator in chief should not be the Porte parole of the politicians as was the case before and sadly so. I would love to read in your next writings about what the parliament is or isn’t doing because this is where the vanilla is. The IMF’s main concern is to help the gvt restart with a clean slate I.e zero responsibility and wiping all depositors (no categories) to the tune of 80% and restructuring Eurobonds at a max of 20% and all this would be phased over 10,20 perhaps 30 years! They are bringing ready made solutions to a fragmented, bankrupt, ungovernable and unreformable country at war with neighbors and itself. Time and again we are the champions of missed opportunities and I’m afraid history will repeat itself.
Magistralement analyse et explique …. A ce train la je saurai vite naviguer dans les meandres tortures et compliques de la politique… MERCI , j’attends les dimanches avec impatience
Wow ! Superbe analyse ! Les mots sont tellement justes ,que la situation du pays telle que tu l as décrite apparaît comme une évidence! Chapeau 🎩
Kristy you captured the frustration and stillness of the situation in Lebanon so clearly and beautifully. Thank you for putting it into words. Excellent work!
Hi Kristy,
First, I just want to say I’m really glad I’ve come across your Substack. The Karometer is a refreshing take on Lebanese politics.
I agree with much of your logic, I’d just like to add a couple more reflections..
On the disarmament piece, I think the analysis could benefit from factoring in how counterproductive Israeli measures have been (inaction on withdrawal, their army is still occupying 5 outposts + their latest attack on Beirut). I think this adds logistical and psychological weight on disarmament efforts and complicates any short-term objective.
As for Lebanon’s absence from the US–Iran negotiation table, and I’m still debating this myself, I echo your point about the need for agency in decisions that directly affect us, but at the same time, I’m leaning toward the idea that this exclusion is the result of our own collective undoing, and maybe it’s time to acknowledge our current size and weight, and build from there. That’s obviously easier said than done given how deeply the Lebanese psyche cares about global affiliations.
Looking forward to your next piece.
Thank you, right on the dot expressing and analyzing the political stalemate.
Hello Kristy,
Few comments concerning the financial part of your analysis. The central bank is not responsible for passing laws merely commenting on suggested ones and the main players are the government and the parliament. The regulator in chief should not be the Porte parole of the politicians as was the case before and sadly so. I would love to read in your next writings about what the parliament is or isn’t doing because this is where the vanilla is. The IMF’s main concern is to help the gvt restart with a clean slate I.e zero responsibility and wiping all depositors (no categories) to the tune of 80% and restructuring Eurobonds at a max of 20% and all this would be phased over 10,20 perhaps 30 years! They are bringing ready made solutions to a fragmented, bankrupt, ungovernable and unreformable country at war with neighbors and itself. Time and again we are the champions of missed opportunities and I’m afraid history will repeat itself.
Warm regards
Thank you Kristy to lighten us with you bright analysis. We missed you. It resumed it well: moving too slow in such a fast paced world . Keep it on👍👍👍
Magistralement analyse et explique …. A ce train la je saurai vite naviguer dans les meandres tortures et compliques de la politique… MERCI , j’attends les dimanches avec impatience