Welcome back to Think with K!
After four weeks covering Beirut's municipal elections—where we watched familiar patterns reassert themselves across the capital—it's time to return to the Karometer.
I'm dedicating this issue to a fresh state of the union through our four-pillar framework because the broader strategic picture has been shifting around us. While we plan summer festivals, Iran dismissed the latest US nuclear proposal, potential military action against Iranian nuclear sites dominates strategic discussions, and Lebanon wasn't invited to the May US-Saudi summit. Trump's team is reshuffling Middle East priorities with Iran as the central focus, and tragically, Lebanon has virtually no influence over these discussions that can shape its future.
The scorecard reflects a country that's mastered the art of tactical progress while the strategic imperative remains unaddressed. While Lebanon's Instagram feed overflows with ribbon cuttings and networking events, while ministers attend valuable conferences about "Smart Government" and celebrate genuine infrastructure milestones, a disconnect emerges between tactical progress and strategic foundations. We're building impressive initiatives on unstable ground, projecting that conference excellence can substitute for territorial sovereignty and that successful tourism campaigns can mask underlying security deficits.
The Americans are engaging Tehran directly on nuclear capabilities, with negotiations so far focusing primarily on uranium enrichment. One hopes this represents comprehensive diplomatic engagement where Iran's regional proxy networks are being addressed alongside nuclear issues—rather than the dangerous short-sightedness of treating these as separate problems.
We've become yet again a subject of regional negotiations rather than a participant, which makes our domestic Karometer progress feel both more urgent and more fragile.
🔴 Disarmament: Down to 25 Points (-5)
Previous Score (April 27): 30 points
When we left off in April, disarmament had earned 30 points based on genuine LAF (the Lebanese Army - Lebanese Armed Forces) progress south of the Litani and open political discourse about militia weapons. Real progress had been made, and the taboo around discussing Hezbollah's arsenal was finally broken.
Today, I'm subtracting 5 points due to the lack of concrete plans for disarming militias beyond the southern border and the recent strikes on our capital that demonstrate how precarious our situation remains.
The LAF's Unprecedented Achievement
The LAF's dismantling of over 500 Hezbollah sites south of the Litani represents genuinely herculean work. Morgan Ortagus's assessment that six months of progress surpassed 15 years of previous efforts accurately captures the scale of this accomplishment. Our soldiers are risking their lives daily to reclaim Lebanese territory, and their sacrifice deserves continuous recognition.
The Palestinian Camp Precedent
For the first time, Lebanon is developing concrete political will for systematic disarmament operations with clear timelines and rollout plans. Palestinian camps face LAF entry on June 16—the first large-scale LAF operation in years. Palestinian President Abbas's recent historic visit to Lebanon enabled this dialogue, creating a blueprint with actual deadlines and measurable objectives.
However, not all Palestinian factions are involved in this dialogue. Hamas maintains presence in these camps with no allegiance to Abbas or intention of following his directives.
June 16 is approaching fast, and the repercussions could be significant. We could see direct confrontation between the army and Palestinian factions, putting our LAF's tactical capabilities to a major test. If successful, this could potentially inform future LAF operations in other areas where state authority faces similar challenges (Beirut’s suburbs for instance).
Of course we cannot compare both situations directly—one benefits from direct leadership engagement in the disarmament process, while the other operates without such acknowledgment from its sponsors. However, one might ask whether the time has come to apply consistent standards regarding state sovereignty across all Lebanese territory…
When the LAF is refused entry to Beirut's suburbs, this represents the same sovereignty deficit we acknowledge in refugee camps. The Palestinian precedent shows how leadership cooperation can enable progress, whereas Hezbollah's full disarmament remains stalled by the absence of such acknowledgment. Vague diplomatic statements about non-interference no longer suffice when territorial sovereignty remains contested.
The Ceasefire Violation Reality
We've reached an inflection point where Israel doesn’t wait for provocation to strike. Every day that passes without deploying the army in militias’ strongholds north of the Litani is considered a ceasefire violation. Israel now considers Lebanon's continued tolerance of Hezbollah's arsenal beyond the southern border a fundamental breach of agreement. The eight Israeli strikes on Beirut's suburbs last Thursday weren't responses to immediate provocations—they were reminders that incomplete disarmament means external intervention.
The Rearmament Challenge
Syrian forces intercepted this week weapons shipments headed to Lebanon, including Kornet guided missiles and 30mm ammunition, proving Hezbollah's systematic rearmament efforts continue. Damascus is losing patience with our inability to control weapons flows, and to walk the talk when it comes to border control.
🟠Banking Reform: Stagnant at 10 Points (No Change)
Previous Score (April 27): 10 points
In April, we celebrated lifting banking secrecy as a breakthrough after years of obstruction. We earned those 10 points because the law finally passed with crucial amendments that closed major loopholes, enabling forensic audits and aligning Lebanon with international transparency standards.
Today, the score remains unchanged because we've made zero progress on next steps. The Central Bank governor has essentially vanished from public discourse, avoiding media engagement, while political appointments within the institution signal anything but technocratic renewal.
The Implementation Vacuum
Lifting banking secrecy was supposed to be the beginning, not the end. Instead, we've created a legal framework that sits so far unused while the same networks that captured the banking system work to capture its reform process.
The Political Appointment Problem
Uncertainty over vice-governor positions reflects deeper institutional dysfunction. These appointments will determine whether the Central Bank moves toward technocratic renewal or continues under political influence.
Meanwhile, the IMF has raised specific concerns about Lebanon's banking restructuring law, particularly questioning why different categories of depositors and creditors receive unequal treatment in the recovery process. The Fund also objects to how public sector deposits are handled differently from private deposits. These technical disagreements over the legal framework's fairness and implementation mechanisms have stalled negotiations, keeping Lebanon far from resuming its suspended IMF program and the international financial support that comes with it.
🟡 Rule of Law: Modestly Up to 9 Points (+1)
Previous Score (April 27): 8 points
We had 8 points in April thanks to the Justice Ministry's reinstatement of the Beirut Port investigation and Judge Bitar's historic questioning of former PM Hassan Diab—the first time in Lebanese history a former prime minister faced judicial accountability.
I'm adding just 1 point this week, bringing us to 9, because while judicial reform has made tremendous progress, concerning developments around the port investigation create uncertainty.
The Judicial Reform Breakthrough
The Cabinet's approval of comprehensive judicial reform legislation represents genuine structural progress. This bill addresses court modernization, judicial independence mechanisms, and procedural efficiency improvements that could fundamentally transform Lebanon's legal system. The legislation introduces robust frameworks for judicial autonomy, streamlined procedures, and modernized court administration.
This development deserves significant recognition and should have earned 2 points—but it still requires parliamentary approval, and we've learned not to celebrate until votes are actually cast…
The Port Investigation Controversy
The troubling development involves former Minister and current MP Ghazi Zeaiter, scheduled for interrogation by Judge Bitar on June 13. Zeaiter has spent five years filing lawsuits to obstruct the port investigation and refused to appear before the magistrate despite being subject to an arrest warrant.
Parliament's regular legislative period ended May 31 and wasn't scheduled to resume until fall. However, reports suggest the President and PM met with Speaker Berri to decree an extraordinary session running from June 5 to October 20. For context, extraordinary sessions are called and issued by the President.
Multiple MPs and diaspora groups had been calling for an extraordinary session to debate diaspora voting rights, and numerous other draft laws—including the judiciary bill—require urgent parliamentary attention. So the President and government may have planned this extraordinary session regardless, but critics associate the timing with protecting MP Zeaiter from appearing before Judge Bitar.
I hope this isn't the case—why would they, when the government and president have been vocal about getting blast answers before August 4 and protecting the investigation's independence? But until we see what happens, caution remains warranted. A positive indicator would be Speaker Berri scheduling parliamentary sessions with substantial draft bills for June debate, demonstrating genuine democratic utilization of the decree.
The Media Freedom Dimension
Threats and legal procedures against outlets like Daraj, Megaphone, Kulluna Irada and independent journalists represent systematic preparation for electoral manipulation. These legal harassments target independent journalism as we approach 2026 elections. The judicial reform bill addresses court modernization, but robust media oversight mechanisms remain equally crucial for combating misinformation and propaganda campaigns against groups exposing corruption networks.
This media warfare aims to discredit independent voices now to control information flows during campaign season—a concerning pattern that threatens what remains of our democratic space.
🟢 Government Rehabilitation: Cautiously Up to 24 Points (+2)
Previous Score (April 27): 22 points
In April, we had 22 points reflecting the new government's formation, ministerial roadmaps, and international engagement. This week, I'm adding just 2 points to reach 24, despite a multitude of conferences and initiatives.
Technocratic Renaissance meets Instant Gratification Pattern
Credit where it's due: this government represents a genuine departure from decades of symbolic Lebanese governance. The Smart Government-Diaspora Experts conference, the Lebanon Works initiative, discussions to bring Starlink to Lebanon, WizzAir's inaugural flight, and new hotel openings signal a technocratic approach that prioritizes competence and international engagement.
I will always celebrate Lebanese resilience and our unshakeable love for life. However, as social media floods with ribbon cuttings, networking events, and influencer tours, there's an uncomfortable pattern: we consistently favor instant gratification over confronting structural realities.
While it's refreshing to see political engagement in events and tourism seasons returning, we risk creating an echo chamber that celebrates "new Lebanon" without addressing fundamental foundations. We remain a broke country and a battlefield—acknowledging this isn't defeatism, it's the realism necessary for genuine transformation.
The Appointment Contradiction
Despite the government's impressive technocratic credentials, troubling contradictions emerge in certain political appointments. How can we expect to raise money and attract investors for South Lebanon reconstruction when appointing former officials whose political track records raise fundamental questions about competence and political allegiance for such critical roles?
Appointments can’t keep being about partisan politics and appeasing sectarian tensions - not when we have a new political class that wants to be serious about Lebanon's renewed credibility.
The Priority Sequencing Challenge
My frustration isn't with individual ministerial performance—this cabinet demonstrates exceptional competence and dedication to Lebanon's revival. The issue lies with strategic sequencing: while outstanding work proceeds on multiple fronts, the fundamental sovereignty question remains unsolved. Until we resolve the weapons question that underlies all other challenges, even brilliant governance operates within artificially constrained parameters.
Tourism campaigns and infrastructure projects represent positive developments, but they're built on unstable foundations. You can't sustain tourism on a battlefield, attract serious investment without territorial control, or build lasting prosperity while sovereignty remains contested.
💠A Thought to Leave You With…
Lebanon faces a fundamental choice between strategic transformation and tactical theater. The Karometer reflects a country that has mastered incremental progress while shying away from comprehensive reform.
We've proven that systematic disarmament is operationally feasible through LAF success south of the Litani and planned Palestinian camp operations. We've created legal frameworks for banking accountability and judicial reform. We've assembled a technocratic government that projects competence internationally.
What's missing isn't capability—it's implementation. Until Lebanon applies the same disarmament standards to all armed groups, uses the accountability tools we've created, and sequences sovereignty before prosperity, we'll continue measuring tactical progress while strategic opportunity slips away.
As I wrote in March: "We cannot build a digital state on an analog militia system." That observation remains as relevant today as it was three months ago. Until Lebanon chooses statehood over militia accommodation, the Karometer will continue reflecting tactical achievements within strategic paralysis.
The question isn't whether change is coming—it's whether we'll have agency in shaping it or remain passive recipients of others' decisions. When the US and Iran sit down to negotiate regional arrangements, Lebanon's voice should be at that table. But we can only speak as a sovereign state, not as a collection of competing authorities. The Karometer measures our progress toward that sovereignty—and right now, we're moving too slowly while the world moves too fast.
Until next time,
K
Wow ! Superbe analyse ! Les mots sont tellement justes ,que la situation du pays telle que tu l as décrite apparaît comme une évidence! Chapeau 🎩
Kristy you captured the frustration and stillness of the situation in Lebanon so clearly and beautifully. Thank you for putting it into words. Excellent work!