Ding Dong, Pandora’s Here
Weekly Roundup - April 21- 27, 2025
This week, we can take a moment to celebrate: a genuine reform has passed through a system designed to resist it. Parliament has finally lifted the banking secrecy law that has sheltered fraud for decades.
But make no mistake: this wouldn't have happened without Lebanon standing at the precipice, with international institutions refusing to extend another lifeline without seeing real action. It wouldn't have happened without independent voices in Parliament pushing relentlessly since 2019. And it certainly wouldn't have happened if Lebanese delegations weren't simultaneously in Washington, desperately needing to show good faith.
But it did happen. Whether those cracks widen to bring true accountability or are hastily patched over will define the next critical phase of Lebanon's recovery.
As we dive into a week of consequential diplomatic missions, energy sector lifeline, and municipal election manoeuvring, let's remember that Lebanon's path forward isn't about abstract reforms—it's about using these new tools to recover what was stolen from an entire generation. I also have something new to share in the last section, so stay put!
🔍 This Past Week's Pulse: Banking Secrecy Falls, Delegation Delivers
On Thursday, a majority of 87 MPs voted for the law, while 13 voted against in the 128-member legislature. It preserves the critical amendments proposed by the Council of Ministers, including a 10-year retroactivity clause. Two of the three glaring loopholes we had flagged have been addressed: auditing firms now have access to banking information, and the authority to issue implementing decrees has been shifted from the Minister of Finance to the entire Council of Ministers. These two corrections are vital to prevent political bottlenecking and selective disclosure.
It's important to highlight that independent MPs — particularly Paula Yaacoubian — have been advocating for lifting banking secrecy since 2019. Without the presence of independent voices in Parliament, we wouldn't be standing at this threshold. It's a clear reminder: electing independents isn't about slogans — it's about making structural change possible.
And yet, vigilance is non-negotiable. We must bring full public scrutiny to the MPs who voted against this law. Their choice speaks volumes about their loyalties and constituents should remember their names when the legislative elections come around next spring.
What Lifting Banking Secrecy Really Means
Lifting banking secrecy does not mean that tomorrow we'll have a Google search where you can type in someone's name and pull up their account statements.
Banking data will still be protected — but now, under strict legal procedures, the right institutions will have the power to request and access that information during investigations. The law:
Enables forensic audits to properly investigate individuals and institutions.
Empowers judicial action against financial crimes.
Aligns Lebanon with international transparency standards like those required by the IMF and FATF.
Lebanese Delegations in Washington: Steps at the Edge of the Cliff
Lebanese delegations headed to Washington for the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and the IMF, led by Finance Minister Yassine Jaber, Central Bank Governor Karim Souaid, and Economy Minister Amer Bisat.
So what was achieved?
Electricity Sector Funding: the World Bank approved an initial $250 million loan for Lebanon's electricity sector, with discussions already underway to increase it to $400 million depending on the progress of reforms - more on this below.
Social Protection Boost: secured support for expanding emergency social safety nets.
Technical Assistance Surge: agreements were reached for dozens of technical missions to Lebanon over the next few months, covering governance reforms, financial system oversight, and energy sector restructuring.
Sovereign Debt Talks: minister Jaber signaled that Lebanon intends to re-engage with foreign bondholders within a year, laying early groundwork for future debt restructuring — a crucial but politically explosive topic.
Why did it work this time?
Unified Messaging and Concrete Proposals: for once, there was real inter-ministerial coordination and a clear, focused narrative about recovery.
Timely Progress at Home: Passing the bank secrecy law while the delegation was lobbying abroad was a clear proof of reform.
Lebanon's Electricity Sector: A Lifeline, But Strings Attached
Among the outcomes of Lebanon's Washington meetings, one of the most concrete is the World Bank's approval of a $250 million loan to support the crippled electricity sector. The World Bank agreed to move forward only because Lebanon finally met several conditions it had been dragging its feet on — thanks in part to the quiet but determined leadership of Energy Minister Joe Saddi.
What Were the Conditions Lebanon Delivered On?
Tariff Adjustment: increasing electricity tariffs for the first time in decades, making the pricing slightly more realistic (although still heavily subsidized).
Dollarization Mechanism: a mechanism was created to ensure that funds collected from electricity bills can be converted to dollars — protecting the cash flow needed for fuel purchases and maintenance.
Forensic Audit: an audit covering Electricité du Liban (EDL) accounts has been launched, to start unpacking the financial black hole at the heart of the sector.
Operational Reforms: the Ministry is finalizing the appointment of an independent sector regulator — a key condition to depoliticize and professionalize energy management.
What Will This Money Actually Fund?
The $250 million loan is specifically allocated for structural improvements:
🔹 Solar Power Production: building solar plants capable of producing 150 megawatts of electricity in the Baalbek-Hermel area (which in real life terms is enough to power around 60,000 households, which fits a city the size of Baalbek).
🔹 Grid Modernization: installing a smart control center — a real-time digital brain that monitors and optimizes the flow of electricity across the grid, spotting outages immediately, managing demand more efficiently, and reducing waste and losses.
🔹 Rebuilding Beirut's Distribution Hub: rehabilitating the main electricity distribution center that was destroyed by the port explosion.
🔹 Reducing Power Cuts: the goal is to cut electricity rationing by about 15% over the next 3–5 years.
💡 Sparked a Thought or Made My Blood Boil?
Beirut's Municipal Elections: Parity Over Programs
Beirut's municipal elections are scheduled for May 18, yet the landscape remains unsettled. Lists have not been finalised, campaigning is almost nonexistent, and political negotiations are happening mostly behind closed doors.
As discussed in previous newsletters, Hariri's decision to withdraw his party from the race has had ripple effects across the capital's political scene. In 2016, the elections were framed as a confrontation between Beirut Madinati, a civil society-led movement built on an urban policy agenda, and a broad coalition of traditional political parties: Future, Free Patriotic Movement, Kataeb, Lebanese Forces, Tachnag, Amal, and Hezbollah. Despite their national rivalries, these parties united locally — to preserve their hold over Beirut's municipal council, and encouraging voters to support full lists without splitting their choices.
Today, a similar dynamic is unfolding: the major parties are once again seeking to form a unified list. But Hariri's absence leaves a critical gap, particularly around the issue of sectarian parity — the long-standing, unwritten rule that Beirut's 24 municipal seats be divided evenly between Christians and Muslims. Indeed, unlike parliamentary elections, there are no formal preassigned sectarian quotas in municipal elections. This is why parliament debated on Thursday a law to formalize the quotas in Beirut only - however it stalled, and might not come up again for a vote given the tight timeline.
Are we having the right conversation?
The energy spent negotiating sectarian allocations could be far better spent evaluating candidates based on their urban plans, governance proposals, and management skills — the things that actually determine the quality of daily life in the capital.
👉🏼 Waste management, transportation, green spaces, public health — these are challenges that affect all Beirutis. The God we each pray to will not pave roads, manage waste collection, or oversee fair urban development.
A Missed Opportunity for Real Democratic Culture
In his book "Le Liban d'hier à demain," Prime Minister Nawaf Salam explores how true political renewal in Lebanon must come from civil society — and how secularism must be central to building any sustainable alternative.
Municipal elections offer a rare chance to shift the focus from identity politics to public service. Choosing candidates for their competence, their ideas, and their accountability should be the foundation of a healthy electoral process.
Yet as long as parity remains the organizing principle, the real purpose of elections — to select capable leaders who deliver for their constituents — is sidelined.
👉🏼 The critical question remains: When will Beirut's voters move beyond the politics of balance and begin demanding politics of delivery?
🗣️ The Narrative That's Sticking (For Better or Worse)
Lebanon to Iran: Mind Your Own Business
Since taking office, Foreign Minister Raggi has shown consistent firmness in defending Lebanon's sovereignty — and this week was no exception.
After summoning Iran's ambassador over provocative comments about Hezbollah's weapons, Raggi tasked another official from the Ministry to meet with him, choosing not to personally engage. The message from Lebanon's Foreign Ministry was clear: Iran has neither business interfering in Lebanon's internal affairs nor arming militias.
The symbolism is especially striking as yesterday, on April 26, Lebanon marks 19 years since the final Syrian troops withdrew in 2005, ending nearly three decades of military occupation.
While Lebanon is still far from breaking free of international tutelage, at least today, we are no longer standing on the wrong side of history.
Industrial Revival: Doubling Exports
This week, Industry Minister Joe Issa El Khoury spoke at length about the key issues shaping Lebanon's future — from the government's roadmap and the question of disarmament, to public sector corruption and his plan to double Lebanon's industrial exports from $2.5 billion to $5 billion within 3–4 years.
The interview is eloquent and refreshingly digestible. If you’re in Lebanon, the replay is available and I encourage you to take the time to listen to what statesmanship sounds like. 🎥 Link to the interview.
💭 Introducing the Karometer
As if this newsletter didn’t already have enough K’s in it, I had to go one step further and twist barometer into Karometer.
I want to introduce a new concept — and a shorter visual — for those of you who aren't exactly “readers” but still want to follow the essentials.
Based on the flagship issues this newsletter has been focusing on over the past two months, we’ll be measuring progress on four key pillars:
Disarmament, banking sector reform, rule of law, and government rehabilitation (rebuilding state institutions and restoring credibility).
The Karometer starts at zero on February 8, 2025, the day the new government was formed. The goal: 100 points for each pillar by May next year.
🟧 Orange tracks the progress accumulated so far.
🟨 Yellow shows the points earned — or lost — for a given week.
Since I had the idea of setting up the Karometer only this week, we have a little catching up to do:
Disarmament gets +30 points since the government's start date — while this week itself saw no new movement, real progress has been made south of the Litani, and disarmament is being discussed openly.
Banking reform had been stuck at zero — until this week, when we earned +10 points with the lifting of the banking secrecy.
Rule of law had a base of +5 points thanks to Minister Nassar’s push to reinstate the Beirut Port investigation, and gained +3 points this week with Judge Bitar questioning former PM Hassan Diab — a first in Lebanon’s history for a former prime minister to be held accountable.
Government rehabilitation started strong at +20 points with the formation of the new government, ministerial roadmaps, and international engagement — and added +2 points this week, thanks to the Washington meetings, Minister Raggi’s clear diplomatic stance, and the Industry Minister’s publicly outlined economic plan.
The Karometer will now be our living scoreboard - let me know if you like this format!
Great read ! The scoreboard is on point for the « readers » as well, gives a sense of tangible accountability to measure the road to success 💪🏻
Until next week’s read !
Excellent analysis of the week’s events again! I love the illustration, and the Karometer makes the finish line more concrete… chugging along and rooting for a 100 points in all divisions :)